Manipulating climate data

The Telegraph picks up on Real Climate site.

The scandal of fiddled global warming data

The US has actually been cooling since the Thirties, the hottest decade on record

When future generations try to understand how the world got carried away around the end of the 20th century by the panic over global warming, few things will amaze them more than the part played in stoking up the scare by the fiddling of official temperature data. There was already much evidence of this seven years ago, when I was writing my history of the scare, The Real Global Warming Disaster. But now another damning example has been uncovered by Steven Goddard’s US blog Real Science, showing how shamelessly manipulated has been one of the world’s most influential climate records, the graph of US surface temperature records published by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

Goddard shows how, in recent years, NOAA’s US Historical Climatology Network (USHCN) has been “adjusting” its record by replacing real temperatures with data “fabricated” by computer models. The effect of this has been to downgrade earlier temperatures and to exaggerate those from recent decades, to give the impression that the Earth has been warming up much more than is justified by the actual data.

Global Warming

This post will defer to another blog that has documented the federal government's manipulation of temperature data. He even quotes George Orwell's 1984 at the end!

Job well done. Steven Goddard has done valuable and unique work in documenting the NEWSPEAK of the global warming, err, climate change, err, climate disruption agenda.

NOAA/NASA Dramatically Altered US Temperatures After The Year 2000

Posted on June 23, 2014by stevengoddard

Prior to the year 2000, NASA showed US temperatures cooling since the 1930′s, and 1934 much warmer than 1998.

NASA GISS: Science Briefs: Whither U.S. Climate?

NASA’s top climatologist said that the US had been cooling

Whither U.S. Climate?
By James Hansen, Reto Ruedy, Jay Glascoe and Makiko Sato — August 1999

Empirical evidence does not lend much support to the notion that climate is headed precipitately toward more extreme heat and drought.

in the U.S. there has been little temperature change in the past 50 years, the time of rapidly increasing greenhouse gases — in fact, there was a slight cooling throughout much of the country

NASA GISS: Science Briefs: Whither U.S. Climate?

NOAA and CRU also reported no warming in the US during the century prior to 1989.

February 04, 1989

Last week, scientists from the United States Commerce Department’sNational Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said that a study of temperature readings for the contiguous 48 states over the last century showed there had been no significant change in average temperature over that period. Dr. (Phil) Jones said in a telephone interview today that his own results for the 48 states agreed with those findings.

New York Times

Right after the year 2000, NASA and NOAA dramatically altered US climate history, making the past much colder and the present much warmer. The animation below shows how NASA cooled 1934 and warmed 1998, to make 1998 the hottest year in US history instead of 1934. This alteration turned a long term cooling trend since 1930 into a warming trend.

Fig.D.gif (525×438)

But NASA and NOAA have a little problem. The EPA still shows that heatwaves during the 1930s were by far the worst in US temperature record.

Heat waves in the 1930s remain the most severe heat waves in the U.S. historical record (see Figure 1).

High and Low Temperatures | Climate Change | US EPA

George Orwell explained how this worked.

“He who controls the past controls the future. He who controls the present controls the past.”

― George Orwell, 1984

More from him:

Summer Is A Thing Of The Past In Norway

Posted on June 22, 2014by stevengoddard

Snow in June? Only in Norway | IceNews – Daily News

Ever Wondered Why NCDC Doesn’t Publish Actual Measured Temperatures?

Posted on June 22, 2014by stevengoddard

NCDC never publishes graphs of measured US temperatures. Here is why.

Data is located here :

ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/ushcn/v2.5/ushcn.tavg.latest.raw.tar.gz

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Climate Consultants

Posted on June 22, 2014by stevengoddard

I work as a consultant, and I get paid for delivering what the client wants.

Climate scientists work as consultants to the government, who pays their contracts. Either they deliver what the government wants, or their funding gets cut off.

It is not a conspiracy.  Rather it is a simple business arrangement. Everyone who works in climate science understands it.

But their work certainly has nothing to do with either climate or science. They are propagandists on a $29 billion/year budget.

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The Methane Scam

Posted on June 22, 2014by stevengoddard

One of alarmists’ favorite lies is that “methane is 30 times worse than CO2“

This is complete BS. Methane’s absorption bands almost completely overlap with H2O, and methane concentrations in the atmosphere are very low.  CH4 quickly oxides and disappears from the atmosphere, so there can never be a lot of methane in a warm atmosphere with a large concentration of O2.

Methane contributes almost nothing to Earth’s greenhouse effect.

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Narrow Down Their Options, Then Corner Your Enemy

Posted on June 22, 2014by stevengoddard

The new EPA regulations make the US completely dependent on fracking moving forwards.

Next on their agenda is to shut down fracking, which unlike CO2 represents an actual environmental hazard.

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IPCC Models Can’t Produce Anything To Worry About

Posted on June 22, 2014by stevengoddard

Junk Science Week: IPCC commissioned models to see if global warming would reach dangerous levels this century. Consensus is ‘no’

Even if you pile crazy assumption upon crazy assumption, you cannot even manage to make climate change cause minor damage

The debate over climate change is horribly polarized. From the way it is conducted, you would think that only two positions are possible: that the whole thing is a hoax or that catastrophe is inevitable. In fact there is room for lots of intermediate positions, including the view I hold, which is that man-made climate change is real but not likely to do much harm, let alone prove to be the greatest crisis facing humankind this century

Junk Science Week: IPCC commissioned models to see if global warming would reach dangerous levels this century. Consensus is ‘no’ | Financial Post

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Antarctic Sea Ice Area Increasing By 52,000 Manhattans Per Century

Posted on June 22, 2014by stevengoddard

Antarctic sea ice area is at an all-time record high for the date, and is increasing since 1979 at a rate of 52,000 Manhattans per century.

The NSIDC web site has links to articles citing the threat to penguins from declining sea ice in Antarctica.

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/timeseries.south.anom.1979-2008

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Going …. Going …. Gone

Posted on June 22, 2014by stevengoddard

Thirty-nine percent of USHCN data is now fabricated, meaning that there is now 39% more monthly temperature data reported than measured, compared to less than 5% in 1990.

The fabricated data is warming 7°F/century faster than the measured data since 1990, when the data started disappearing.

In fact, the measured TOBS adjusted data shows no warming since 1990. All US warming since 1990 is due to data fabrication.

I am considered a heretic for excluding imaginary temperature data from my analysis, and simply averaging the thermometer data. It is now considered unacceptable by the orthodoxy to use actual measured data.

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Removing The 1940′s Blip

Posted on June 21, 2014by stevengoddard

As of 1975, there was nearly unanimous consensus among experts that the first half of the 20th century was exceptionally warm, and that temperatures had plummeted after 1940.

The National Academy of Sciences published this graph, showing that the late 1960′s were cooler than the turn of the 20th century.

From 1900 to 1950, there was dramatic retreat of ice in the Northern Hemisphere

POLAR ICE THAW INCREASING  GLACIERS SAID TO BE MELTING

CLEVELAND, Feb. 16 (A.A.P.) Dr. William S. Carlson, an Arctic expert, said to-night that the Polar icecaps were melting at an astonishing and unexplained rate and were threatening to swamp seaports  by raising the ocean levels.

The glaciers of Norway and Alaska are only half the size they were 50 years ago. The temperature around Spitsbergen has so modified that the sailing time has lengthened from three to eight months of the year,” he said. ‘

18 Feb 1952 – POLAR ICE THAW INCREASING GLACIERS SAID TO [?] M…

The Courier-Mail  Monday 6 May 1940

Professor Ahlmann was speaking on the collated results of his expedition to north-east Greenland, and he stated that the glaciers there showed clear signs of a change towards a warmer climate. As had been observed in other parts of the Arctic, especially in Spitzbergen, the melting had increased rapidly. By far the largest number of local glaciers innortheast Greenland had receded very greatly during recent decades, and it would not be exaggerating to say that these glaciers were nearing a catastrophe.

06 May 1940 – Greenland’s Climate Becoming Milder

But by 1970, the Arctic was rapidly freezing, with scientists reporting a large increase in ice.  The CIA reported a 10-15% increase in ice and snow. there can be little doubt that the early 1970′s were much colder than earlier in the century - when glaciers were rapidly melting.

CIA Report 1974

And scientists reported there was no end in sight to Northern Hemipshere cooling

International Team of Specialists Finds No End in Sight to 30-Year Cooling Trend in Northern Hemisphere – View Article – NYTimes.com

The 1940 spike in temperatures doesn’t fit the current global warming narrative, so government funded climate scientists decided to get rid of it.

From: Tom Wigley <wigley@ucar.edu>
To: Phil Jones <p.jones@uea.ac.uk>
Subject: 1940s
Date: Sun, 27 Sep 2009 23:25:38 -0600
Cc: Ben Santer <santer1@llnl.gov>

It would be good to remove at least part of the 1940s blip, but we are still left with “why the blip”.

di2.nu/foia/1254108338.txt

And they did exactly that. The Hockey Team removed almost all of the 1940s blip, and the post 1940 cooling.

GISS data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v3/ZonAnn.Ts+dSST.txt

1975 NAS understandingcli00un…

They accomplished this by massively cooling the period from 1901 to 1960. The graph below shows haw Northern Hemisphere temperatures have been rewritten since the 1975 National Academy of Sciences report. The Hockey Team knocked more than 0.4ºC off 1920 temperatures, relative to the late 1960′s.

By doing this they paved the way for Michael Mann’s hockey stick – which of course wouldn’t have worked if 1970 was colder than 1900.

…That’s the News. And Now for San Juan’s Weather… – View Article – NYTimes.com

But it wasn’t just the Northern Hemisphere, the Hockey team has also dramatically cooled the Southern Hemisphere’s past.

Without all of this massive data tampering by the Hockey Team, the global warming story collapses.

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1981 : Scientists Warn Of Unprecedented Warming In The 21st Century

Posted on June 21, 2014by stevengoddard

STUDY FINDS WARMING TREND THAT COULD RAISE SEA LEVELS
By WALTER SULLIVAN
Published: August 22, 1981

A team of Federal scientists says it has detected an overall warming trend in the earth’s atmosphere extending back to the year 1880. They regard this as evidence of the validity of the ”greenhouse” effect, in which increasing amounts of carbon dioxide cause steady temperature increases.

The seven atmospheric scientists predict a global warming of ”almost unprecedented magnitude” in the next century. It might even be sufficient to melt and dislodge the ice cover of West Antarctica, they say, eventually leading to a worldwide rise of 15 to 20 feet in the sea level. In that case, they say, it would ”flood 25 percent of Louisiana and Florida, 10 percent of New Jersey and many other lowlands throughout the world” within a century or less.

STUDY FINDS WARMING TREND THAT COULD RAISE SEA LEVELS – NYTimes.com

So far this century, we have had zero warming.

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The 97% Is Really 100%

Posted on June 20, 2014by stevengoddard

Every scientist understands that humans influence the climate. Cities are well known to be much warmer than surrounding countryside. Chopping down forests changes the climate. Greenhouse gases obviously influence the climate. The most common greenhouse gas is water vapor, and everyone understands that humid climates are different from dry climates.

So the 97% of scientists who believe in man-made global warming is actually closer to 100%. The problem is that Democrats claim that 97% of scientists believe global warming is imminent and dangerous. The repeated that over and over again this week, yet there is no evidence to back up their claim.

As far as I know, there has never been any survey done asking a broad group of scientists if global warming is dangerous.  That certainly isn’t a word which comes up very often in scientific literature.

In 1999, NASA’s James Hansen (the worlds best known climate alarmist) wrote:

Empirical evidence does not lend much support to the notion that climate is headed precipitately toward more extreme heat and drought

NASA GISS: Science Briefs: Whither U.S. Climate?

A few months ago, the American Meteorological Society took a poll of its members and found that only 52% believe global warming is primarily caused by man. Among professional forecasters, the number was even lower.

journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00091.1

Barely half of atmospheric scientists believe global warming is primarily due to man, much less imminent and dangerous.

The Democratic claims of  scientific support for their position - are 97%  propaganda, and it forms the cornerstone of their argument.

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Ninety Seven Percent

Posted on June 20, 2014by stevengoddard

Originally posted on Derek Sorensen:

Once again, Cook et al 2013 seems to be generating quite a bit of discussion.  According to the abstract, 97% of a selection of scientific papers related to Global Warming “support the consensus” that “humans are causing global warming”, vis:

We analyze the evolution of the scientific consensus on anthropogenic global warming (AGW) in the peer-reviewed scientific literature, examining 11 944 climate abstracts from 1991–2011 matching the topics ‘global climate change’ or ‘global warming’. We find that 66.4% of abstracts expressed no position on AGW, 32.6% endorsed AGW, 0.7% rejected AGW and 0.3% were uncertain about the cause of global warming. Among abstracts expressing a position on AGW, 97.1% endorsed the consensus position that humans are causing global warming. In a second phase of this study, we invited authors to rate their own papers. Compared to abstract ratings, a smaller percentage of self-rated papers expressed no position on AGW (35.5%). Among…

View original 401 more words

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My Response To The EPA Hearings This Week

Posted on June 20, 2014by stevengoddard

In one corner, we had very organized and well scripted Democrats pushing mindless dishonest global warming propaganda. On the other side (with a few exceptions) we had clueless, disarmed Republicans mumbling incoherently against the EPA regulations.

The Democrats had numerous present and former EPA administrators verbally backing up their claims. The major claims were :

1. 97% of scientists agree that global warming is real, imminent and dangerous
2. Heatwaves are becoming more common
3. Severe weather is becoming more common and extreme
4. Sea level is rising due to global warming and threatens coastal regions

There isn’t one shred of evidence to support the idea that most scientists believe global warming is imminent and dangerous. The Democrats tack those words on to a completely benign (and obvious) finding that most scientists believe humans influence the climate. It is beyond my comprehension why Republicans repeatedly let them get away with that.

The EPA’s own data shows that heatwaves are not becoming more common in the US, and peaked 80 years ago.

Heat waves in the 1930s remain the most severe heat waves in the U.S. historical record (see Figure 1).

High and Low Temperatures | Climate Change | US EPA

The Republicans could have discredited the EPA administrators by simply showing this graph, which is prominently displayed on the EPA web site.

Extreme weather is not becoming more common or more severe. Obama’s presidency has seen the fewest US hurricane strikes of any president since at least 1850. There have been three US hurricane strikes since Obama took office, compared to twenty-six while Grover Cleveland was president.

HURDAT Re-analysis Chronological List of All Hurricanes

The last two years have had the lowest number of US tornadoes on record.

1953-2013-tornado-detrend-captioned.png (1100×750)

The frequency of severe tornadoes peaked forty years ago.

tornadotrend.jpg (872×528)

All US short term rainfall records were set a long time ago.

Weather Extremes : What is the Most Rain to Ever Fall in One Minute or One Hour? | Weather Underground

There isn’t one shred of legitimate evidence to back up the claim that the weather is becoming more extreme.

As far as sea level goes, it has been rising for 20,000 years, and is 400 feet higher now than it was when the first Americans walked across the Bering Strait from Asia.

File:Post-Glacial Sea Level.png – Global Warming Art

More recent observations of sea level show that there is no human influence. Sea level on the East Coast (blue below) appears to have been rising at a steady rate since the start of measurements in 1850. It shows no acceleration as CO2 increased, indicating that there is no human influence on sea level.

On the west coast (red below) sea level rise rates are much lower, indicating that what is being observed on the East Coast is land sinking, rather than oceans rising.

None of the scary Democrat/EPA claims are backed by evidence, and are nothing more than carefully planned, well versed propaganda – yet the Republicans remain incapable of mounting a coherent response. If the Republicans were educated and organized, they would be able to shut this scam down in a matter of days.

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Comment on one thread:

1. What wavelengths of IR are radiated by the surface of the Earth, from pole to equator, winter and summer, day and night, on average, and what wavelengths are absorbed by CO2 and water vapor?

2. Does CO2 have latent heat? What about water vapor? What is latent heat?

3. How high into the atmosphere does IR get before all of it is absorbed? a. 100 feet b. 1000 feet c. 10000 feet d. 20 miles

4. Why is Antarctic sea ice increasing every winter?

A Planck curve from around 7 to 50 microns centering at 15. No. Yes. It’s the heat that water vapor releases when it condenses into clouds. 100 feet. Because it’s getting colder.

The Dark Halls Of Superstition At The US Capitol

Posted on June 19, 2014by stevengoddard

In yesterday’s Senate EPW hearing, Democrats repeated over and over again that Mann-made CO2 is causing sea level to rise on the East Coast, and was going to drown us all.

So let’s try correlating actual sea level measurements vs. CO2. Manhattan and Atlantic City have the longest tide gauge records on the East Coast, and both showed that sea level rose much faster vs. CO2, when CO2 was below 315 PPM.

The reason for this is because there is no correlation between sea level and CO2. The apparent sea level rise is due to a linear subsidence of the land, rather than rise of the seas.

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